What will happen to the dollar in the near future? What will happen to the ruble? Forecasts of the ruble and the dollar for 2019 in Russia + latest news and expert opinions

Hello dear readers of the financial magazine Rich Pro! Today we will try to answer the questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2019; when the crisis in Russia will end and so on.

Indeed, the current economic situation is causing unrest among Russian citizens for their total instability. The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people worry about the well-being of their own family, some are embarrassed by the rise in prices for essential goods. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned by one question: What will happen to the ruble / dollar in the near future?No one can give an exact answer to these questions, not even experienced analysts can decide on specific forecasts.

Some experts insist that our currency will gradually gain strength, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and are looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + forecast for the dollar for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - the latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end, you will learn our vision for the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.

Want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions

Everyone knows that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions imposed by Western countries also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The motive for imposing sanctions against Russia was political action in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result of which, one part of the population began to resist. The first inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula began to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to leave unitary Ukraine. So in 2014 year a referendum was held that gathered more 83 % of votes for disconnection from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the accession of the peninsula to Russia a consequence military operations and act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted disconnections from Ukraine.

As you know, on October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also influenced the limitation of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.

In particular, the restrictions apply to such companies in the Russian oil and gas industry:

• Rosneft;
• Transneft;
• Gazpromneft.

Due to the action of sanctions, the following Russian banks were hit:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• VTB;
• Gazprombank;
• VEB;
• Russian Agricultural Bank.

Sanctions did not bypass the industry of the Russian Federation:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• Oboronprom;
• "United Aircraft Corporation".

The sanctions are to prohibit residents of the European Union and their companies from conducting operations with securities whose validity period more than 30 days, assistance to Russia in the extraction of oil products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investment, securities and even consultations European companies. The EU also banned the transfer of Russia technologies, equipment and intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civilian industries.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were forbidden to supply special goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are forbidden to use their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention the entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who find themselves on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it, guided by any goals, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Canadian companies are also not allowed to provide sanctioned companies. financing for a period of more than 30 days.

US Sanctions relate, first of all, the supply of technology to Russia, programs to support the Russian military. The sanctions also touched on the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is forbidden to use spacecraft, in the development of which the US forces participated, and also which include elements developed by the state. Due to this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.

America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for a period of more than 90 days.
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on entering an authorized list of people in the country, the freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia to participate in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relations among companies, banks and so on.

As you can see, the sanctions imposed are good hit the economy and the development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion on actions by Russia to lift the sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to refuse to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. The retaliatory sanctions of Russia, the European Union introduces retaliation bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing their economic ties with them. This is primarily true Middle East.

By cooperating, you can issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but so far have not taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia organize your export. Oil trading is now low, and all because prohibitions and sanctions.

The expansion of oil and natural gas supplies will help Russia eventually achieve a share of stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of the transformation of Ukraine, into the so-called black hole, in its very center. And at the same moment, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play a role. You should not expect such actions from the US government, - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is already not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinion

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019

In recent years, the national currency of Russia has fallen more, than 20%. The population has not yet seen such a strong fall in the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. It especially excites people who are going to buy or sell assets, the property, foreign currency and just people worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets from this broker.

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the ruble depreciation rate will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the exchange rate of the ruble.

They claim that they will now act on the course through inflation targeting. Basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios about the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. disturbing
3. realistic.

Scenario 1 - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on its way to recovery and economic growth. The stabilization of the price of a barrel of oil in the countries of Asia and Korea is expected, which will rise to the level of $ 95, and the dollar should acquire its former value 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western states in relation to Russia, which will affect the increase in 0,3-0,6 %. Such changes are expected in the fall of 2019.

Scenario 2 - Anxious Scenario

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The collapse of the oil market only worsens the situation in stabilizing the ruble against the dollar. If we look at the statistics, we can say that in 2016 the average dollar exchange rate in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the american dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

According to some analysts and experts, the plans of our government do not include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. Export development is what government efforts are directed at.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, since Russia is coping with production shortages. The capacity of state production forces does not allow to process crops harvested by Russian farmers and excavators.

Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If you look at the statistics 2014-2015, then we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5%.

The collapse of the economy can not positively affect the ruble exchange rate. When calculating such a percentage of GDP decline, the basis is the cost per barrel of oil. As well as the conditions of action of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential internal and external investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the influx of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will begin to lose its current position.

Several reasons will contribute to this:

• the first factor is forecasting a decline in oil prices in the global market. What concerns, first of all, natural gas, which by its export brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the geopolitics of the country. The recent accession of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western countries, which also hinder the stabilization of the ruble. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of capital.

With such events, GDP is expected to decline to an indicator that will amount to 3-3,5%. The dollar is stabilizing, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

Scenario 3 - Realistic Scenario

As the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015 show, the EU will not lift the sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at today's level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, in this situation it will remain the same price of 40-60 dollars per barrel. The GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and World Bank forecasts, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator at all. The fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 %.

The reasons for the fall and growth of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. The reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors

In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. A lot of factors influence the decrease and increase of the course. And now, as never before, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we wrote an article on how to make money on Forex and what a novice trader needs to know to successfully trade on Forex.

What affects the behavior of the national currency?

* Ruble growth factors

Among the many reasons, we can distinguish those that have positive action on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country policy. This factor directly It is connected with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities. Investing Western partners in the securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble in the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities, as a process, is poorly developed. Perhaps soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capitalwhile receiving income in the form of dividends.
• The cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources. Moreover, oil is sufficient not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia is enriching its state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of population to national currency. It’s not immediately clear what the meaning of these words is, normally people relate to it. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate.The more the national currency will be attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become; accordingly, economic growth will not take long. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be stability of the economy. Therefore, the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, as residentsand Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble, in particular.
• The increase in the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to overfulfill it. A high volume of production will ensure not only the needs of the country, but also export of goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Ruble fall factors

In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate. They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should thoroughly take measures to prevent them.

1. The outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments in foreign currency. By exchanging our monetary savings in another currency, we ourselves, without suspecting it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. Thus, capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the position of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the collapse of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring low welfare.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the advanced currency is precisely the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a strong position, thanks to continuous measures by the United States aimed at strengthening the national currency of the country. America confidently strengthens its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar from America, the ruble loses its position. To take measures to prevent the depreciation, in such a situation, even by all the forces of the Russian economy, is simply impossible.
3. Game population with exchange rates. The desire to make money on the exchange rate arises among most Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. Thus, people provide themselves with reliable storage of their savings through a stable currency. In times of a strong depreciation of the ruble, huge transfers of Russian money into foreign currencies were carried out, which also ensured a drop in the national rate. Such actions confirm the fact that the Russians distrust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures. During the depreciation of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into a dollar. This situation could have prevented a significant drop in the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Production of Russia, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to employees. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that has remained since the days of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people in domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Stagnation of the economy. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing a product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality at about the same price category as the domestic manufacturer. West is known for advanced technology production, which, unfortunately, Russia can not yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another manufacturing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

At the moment, each of these factors has a place to be, together they have a devastating effect on the Russian economy. Therefore, it is better to invest in profitable projects. We recommend reading our article - “Where to invest money to make it work”

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can give a concrete economic situation in the country, as their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2019 will obviously be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts on this subject by some economic experts.

We recommend that you first get acquainted with the opinions of experts and analytics from the company "ForexClub". By the link you will find tabs and sections with fresh forecasts by a specialist, also through this broker you can buy and sell various assets.

The purchase and sale of instruments (stocks, currencies, etc.) is available through the “Tools” tab. The “Analytics” tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts.

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin, believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge recession. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

Modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir, completely agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, raising the economy and the achieved level of stability is only a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble, as the national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolay Salabuto. As the head of Finnam Management, he associates the reason for this situation with the imminent drop in oil prices over several months.

According to the expert, the US national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles to the dollar.

Igor believes that several factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States every year increases oil exports, thereby "cutting off oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which is completely dependent on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. Russian economy requires constant modernization and development by government bodies.
• The US Federal Reserve, whose policies will be associated with some activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses an opinion on the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that today's measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to rethink the bank’s policy.

But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of the Finnam Management company, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors that have been pointed out above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey HestanovDirector of ALOR Group of Companies believes that conditionally factors of the ruble exchange rate fall can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no political, legal or economic justification. Here, Hestanov primarily includes the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses their original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. This is the external sanctions of other states, and the external debt of the country.

The behavior of these factors is impossible to predict, but the analyst is confident that the cost of oil in 74 dollars per barrelwill lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. Such a price will help to reduce even by 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

Opinion of modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulaginmore encouraging. He believes that the ruble’s position today is the starting one. The analyst says that already in 2019, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow.

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of any of them, it is necessary for yourself to understand the strength of the factors affecting the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar in comparison with the ruble. This dependency is displayed as follows: with the growth of the dollar, oil price is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground. With rising oil prices, the dollar is falling, and the ruble is growing.

Graph of ruble value versus oil price

It is impossible to predict the price of oil in 2019. External Economic Bank predicts value in 60 dollars per barrel and higher. At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at a price of $ 70, and the support level is $ 42.

Thanks to news of a reduction in oil production and the extension of this limitation, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. The resistance at this stage is $ 69-70. With a “break through” of these levels, the price of oil will probably go up to $ 98-100. When "breaking" down $ 58 - leaving in the range of 53-58 $

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took an absolute minimum for the last decade and was equal to 28 dollars per barrel. That is, the price of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: latest news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble cannot stabilize its position relative to other foreign currencies, such as dollar and Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.

Probable price drift for the range of 67-72 rubles per dollar. Resistance at the level of 57-59 rubles. (when breaking through this resistance, then leaving to 64-68 rubles). Forecast of the ruble exchange rate (due to the introduction of new sanctions) - probable departure to levels 67-72 p.

Some foreign countries, experiencing economic crises, also observed a depreciation of the national currency. Foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the exchange rate of the national currency, in particular.

Fluctuations in the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions by the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts for the ruble and oil prices. According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it is stabilizing at $ 63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading television channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but stated that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to a drop in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price for the US dollar will equal 55-58 rublesif the OPEC policy will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows sent to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid exhaustion of production capacity, as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that such an industry as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to a lack of funding, and as a consequence of the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play into the good of our currency.

One of the Canadian banks, Scotiabank, the third largest in the country, does not give the most optimistic forecasts for the rate of the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman sachsBy 2019, the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles to the dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be 70 dollars per barrel.

All World Banks agree in one opinion that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Prediction of rising oil prices is good news. But, to raise the economy as a whole will have to stock up patience and baggage of action, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth the wait.

7. Frequently asked questions about the ruble and the dollar

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2019?

The issue of canceling and restricting the American currency has been disturbing the population for some time. From time to time, this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative drafts.

At the moment, the government is taking all kinds of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction in dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by the fact that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.

It is clear that the dollar cannot be completely excluded from the country, since this currency is the basis of the global financial system. State policy is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the national currency of Russia.

for exampleTrading in Russia's national resource, like natural gas for rubles, not dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will lower the dollar against the ruble. In the case of the decision of large countries to sell America's treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will suddenly collapse.

CEO City Express Alexey Kichatov estimates the chances of the abolition of the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial the disappearance of the dollar in Russia. According to the analyst, this will take a lot of time, which ultimately leads to the appearance of two courses of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to deal with the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the coming week?

In forecasting the course, do not take into account news events, politicssince these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspect and unstable.

Since no special changes and stabilization of the exchange rate are expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the coming week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for stabilizing the exchange rate.

We remind you that fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall in the near future?

The ruble exchange rate, as has already been said, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and the economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is associated with the situation of the dollar in the country.

American currency also affects import balance and of export. These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, should have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows to enrich the state budget.

Speaking of this balance, remember that America has biggest public debt. In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, this forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar, as the American currency is the most liquid and most converted currency in the world. Why do experts' forecasts fail from year to year, and the dollar remains the world's most sought-after currency? Is it worth buying dollars and euros now? What are the consequences of a dollar fall?

If the dollar does fall, another currency must come in for a replacement. You need to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of conversion, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace the dollar. But do not forget that the currency of the European Union is relatively young, which is also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis. This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

The reason for this stagnation is also the great debt of America to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries experienced a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in value. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even during the crisis, when everything depreciated, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to their stability, high liquidity and high level of conversion, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar. This diversification takes place to preserve the accumulated cash resources and their possible increase.

This method is used by economically strong states such as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. Using just the dollar as the currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep its currency at a high level. If you believe the rumors that the fault of the economic crisis was one of the "powerful moves" on the part of America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

By the method of maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. In this period was over a trillion dollars printed.

America’s actions did not lead to inflation, as demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by large countries of the world of US Treasury bonds and the abandonment of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the US financial system will fall. Russia is actively pursuing actions by this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then pay the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its national currency, rather than the dollar, then the rate of the latter will go down. Countries simply cease to use the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar grow in 2019?

We have already described in detail the possible forecasts for the dollar. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise the interest rate in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market

From time to time, we will publish our forecasts and our visions at the ruble and dollar exchange rates, analyzing the market, conducting our mainly technical analyzes.

* Forecast for the dollar in the near future

Technical analysis of the usd / rub pair August 23, 2018.

Forecasts on the ruble / dollar exchange rate - support 63-64 rubles (if breaking down, leaving 61-57), resistance 68-69 (when breaking through, leaving 71-72)

Technical analysis of the usd / rub pair January 1, 2019.

Forecasts for the ruble / dollar exchange rate - support 64-65 rubles (when breaking down, leaving to 55 rubles), resistance 69-70 rubles. (when breaking up, leaving 85 rubles). Global support 50 and 55 rubles, global resistance - 70 and 85 rubles.

From the latest technical analysis it follows that the probability of a dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, analytics and forecasts should be done independently. No one knows the exact predictions !!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market yourself, we recommend using the services of this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + video on the topic

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, we can hope for an early stabilization of the national course of Russia. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon happen.

But despite such bright prospects, it is worthwhile to understand that today Russia does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by different actions, as well as not only domestic, but also external political factors undertaken by the politics of other states.

A very precarious situation, a national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the inhabitants of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years, Russia has spent one hundred and fifty billion foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia expects a complete budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and considerable money is required to maintain the functioning level of the economy of such a huge state. The opinions of experts and leading banks are, of course, promising, but you should not rely solely on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, to raise the level of the economy and the level of gross domestic product.

But you need to look at today's situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

As for their own savings in order not to miscalculate and minimize monetary losses, it is worth using a long-known method and storing them in different currencies. We also recommend that you read the article - "How to learn to save and save money?"

We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions “What will happen to the dollar in the near future?”, “What will happen to the ruble?”, Everyone searches for himself, making his forecasts and based on his principles.

If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video on the topic:

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Watch the video: Extreme Investing Beyond Frontier Markets w Jim Rogers (December 2024).